15-19 (44.12%)

The record of Japanese fighters in their UFC debut.

8-14 (36.36%)

The record of Japanese fighters making their UFC debut after Zuffa took took over the company at UFC 33.

0-11 (0.00%)

The record of Japanese fighters who were underdogs going into their first UFC fight since UFC 55. This number is unbelievable to me. Not a single Japanese fighter has pulled an upset in their UFC debut since betting lines have become readily available.

-347

The average line of these underdogs’ opponents.

77.63%

The percent of time a fighter must win to make betting a -347 line a profitable bet (100% of the time definitely fits this category).

$389.95

How much one would have profited betting $100 against each underdog.

$2541.53

How much one would have profited if they started with $100, bet against every underdog and rolled the profit over into the next bet.

6-1 (85.7%)

The record of Japanese fighters who were favorites going into their first UFC fight since UFC 55. Although not quite as telling as the result of the underdogs, it is still quite impressive.

-229

The average line of these favorites.

69.60%

The percent of time a fighter must win to make betting a -229 line a profitable bet.

$161.67

How much one would have profited betting $100 on each favorite.

I think betting-wise Stephan Bonnar and Forrest Griffin are the two most overvalued fighters in the history of mixed martial arts. Their first fight at The Ultimate Fighter 1 Finale made fans out of everyone who watched it. Because of this both fighters will almost always have an inflated line.

Take this fight for example. Bonnar is 2-3 in his last five fights with no impressive victories, and a loss to Mark Coleman who has to be eligible to join the AARP soon. Kyle Kingsbury has won four UFC fights in a row against arguably tougher competition than Bonnar has been facing and he’s only the slimmest of favorites.

I have to go with Kingsbury in this fight. This may be my pick of the night.

Fun Fact: Stephan Bonnar is a two time Chicago Golden Gloves Champion (novice and open division).

Kyle Kingsbury -125 over Stephan Bonnar

Ultimate Fighter winner Ryan Bader has had a solid career so far. Going into 2011 he was 12-0 overall. Then he had to face Jon Jones and Tito Ortiz and was stopped by both of them. There is no honor lost in losing to Jon Jones, but Ortiz is another matter. In his last seven fights Ortiz is 1-5-1 with his only win coming over Bader.

Jason Brilz has nowhere near the record that his opponent Ryan Bader does. What he does have going for him is the ability to comeback from a loss. Something that Bader has not yet shown that he has.

The line for this fight seems about dead on to me. So I might as well take the underdog. It always makes things more interesting.

Fun Fact: Ryan Bader was on the same Arizona State wrestling team as Cain Velasquez and C.B. Dollaway

Jason Brilz +220 over Ryan Bader

Ultimate Fighter: Team Nogueira vs. Team Mir contestant Tom Lawlor hasn’t fought in the UFC in over a year, but what he has shown so far in the promotion has been very impressive. He won his UFC debut against Kyle Kingsbury (4-1 in the UFC) at The Ultimate Fighter 8 Finale. His next fight was a first round submission victory over C.B. Dollaway who was 8-1 up to that point. His third UFC fight was a controversial split decision defeat to Aaron Simpson (6-2 in the UFC), followed by a completely uncontroversial loss to Joe Doerksen (47-16, 2-7 in the UFC), and a win over Patrick Cote at UFC 121.

Chris Weidman is a two-time Division I All-American wrestler who made his professional MMA debut in 2009. His UFC debut was a unanimous decision victory over Alessio Sakara at UFC Live 3. His other UFC fight was a submission win over Jesse Bongfeldt at UFC 131. Sakara is a decent opponent, he is 6-4 in the UFC, but Bongfeldt has never won in the promotion.

I honestly think I would like Lawlor as an even money bet, so I absolutely like him as the underdog.

Fun Fact: Tom Lawlor did a Hulk Hogan impression during his ring entrance before his fight against Aaron Simpson. He even came out to “I Am a Real American”

Tom Lawlor +300 over Chris Weidman

Seven winners out of ten fights!! Including three underdogs! I’m proud of myself. If you bet an even amount on each fight following our advice you would have had a profit of 63.9%.

If you bet an even amount on each fight following our advice you would have had a loss of 35.0%.

Challenger Michael Chandler really started his career with a trial by fire. His second professional fight was in a Strikeforce Challengers event. His third professional fight was for the main Strikeforce promotion. Since then all of his fights have been for Bellator. Chandler breezed through the Bellator lightweight tournament winning his first match by opening round submission and his next two by unanimous decision. So far in his career Chandler has not shown any flaws, and anybody who discounts him in this match is making a mistake.

Champion Eddie Alvarez won the Bellator Lightweight belt in June of 2009 and has held it ever since. The list of fighters he has beaten in his career, including Roger Huerta (6-2 in the UFC) and Joachim Hansen (Dream 2008 Lightweight Grand Prix Champion), dwarfs the level of competition that Michael Chandler has faced. Regardless I am always a sucker for undefeated fighters that are big underdogs. So I am going to back the challenger in this one.

Fun Fact: Michael Chandler’s official website’s states that it is “The Official Website of Michael Chandler, professional UFC Fighter.” Michael has never fought for the UFC.

Michael Chandler +200 over Eddie Alvarez

Aaron Rosa -140 over Matt Lucas

Mike Pierce -325 over Paul Bradley

Alex Caceres +230 over Cole Escovedo

Darren Uyenoyama +300 over Norifumi Yamamoto

Clay Harvison +220 over DaMarques Johnson

Ricardo Lamas -130 over Cub Swanson

Pablo Garza +240 over Dustin Poirier

Clay Guida +220 over Ben Henderson

Junior dos Santos +130 over Cain Velasquez

Rosa most recently fought at UFC 131 as a heavyweight. He weighed in at 261 pounds. Now almost exactly five months later he is going to be fighting at 205 pounds. That is a huge weight difference. I think that huge drop in weight is going to help him to overpower the naturally smaller UFC newcomer Matt Lucas.

Fun Fact: Aaron Rosa started his career 10-0.

Aaron Rosa -140 over Matt Lucas

Mike Pierce beat Paul Bradley at RIE 2: Brotherly Love Brawl in March of 2009. Since that victory Pierce has gone 4-2 including a win over Brock Larson, who was 2-0 in the UFC at that point, a loss to Jon Fitch (13-1-1 in the UFC), and a split decision loss to Johny Hendricks (6-1 in the UFC).

Paul Bradley has had some decent wins in his career, but he always seems to fall short when he tries to take on top tier competition. I love taking underdogs, but I really don’t see a way for Bradley to win this fight.

Fun Fact: Paul Bradley has the most balanced win record I have ever seen. 6 of his wins are by (T)KO, 6 are by submission, and 6 are by decision.

Mike Pierce -325 over Paul Bradley